Difficulties in sea freight transport have not prevented 2024 from being a record-breaking year. Container ship operators have found solutions to the disruption of transit in the Red Sea and rising fuel costs. During the first nine months of the year, they transported nearly 137 million TEUs, a 6.3% year-on-year increase, according to the European Cluster Collaboration Platform. In the third quarter, sea container shipping lines recorded profits of around $27 billion, representing a 164% increase compared to the previous quarter and nearly nine times more than in the same period of 2023. As a result, 2024 has become the third most profitable year in the history of sea freight transport.
Although problems in the Suez Canal persist and despite the tariffs announced by the new U.S. administration, the sector remains optimistic for 2025, albeit with more moderate growth expectations.
Positive Outlook for the Suez Canal
In a survey conducted by consultancy firm Drewry among more than 300 of its clients, 54% expect transit in the Middle East to return to normal before the end of the year, avoiding the current long routes via the Cape of Good Hope. With the reopening of the Suez Canal, the consultancy forecasts a rapid shift in the overall market supply and demand dynamics, considering that rerouting has reduced effective sea freight transport capacity by 9%.
This could lead to a drop in freight rates following the significant increases recorded in 2024. The European Cluster Collaboration Platform’s report highlights a 52.5% year-on-year increase in cargo revenue in the third quarter, noting that spot rates doubled compared to the previous year, according to the annual performance of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI).
Market Growth Despite U.S. Tariffs
Regarding Trump’s well-known tariffs, most respondents in Drewry’s survey believe they will continue to be applied. Some 32% believe the tariff rate will range between 5% and 10%, while 13% predict it will exceed 20%. Regarding the countries most affected by the measure, China is mentioned by 85% of respondents, followed by Mexico (76%), Canada (73%), and the European Union (60%).
Metro’s 2025 sea freight market report forecasts a 5% growth despite ongoing instability due to port congestion and the impact of new U.S. trade policies, which will mainly affect Asia-North America and Asia-Europe routes.
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